السبت، 11 مايو 2013

The Egyptian Foreign Policy Towards Nile Basin Countries Part 4



·      Conclusion:-


The Nile River is the only major source of water for the country, plays a crucial role in the life of Egypt. As compared to the other riparian states, Egypt is the only country that is heavily dependent on the Nile River waters, making Cairo vulnerable to any actions that would jeopardize the flow of the Nile. The Nile River will always be the parameter that influences Egyptian role and foreign policy vis-à-vis the states in the basin region.


As a result of many internal and external factors, the Egyptian role in the Nile basin region deteriorate, after those countries gained their independence; they started development so those countries needs from Egypt changed, from military support and assistance in achieve independence to scientific and technical, economic support to achieve the comprehensive development but there are a lot of issues attract the Egyptian attention from the appearance in the Nile basin region effectively. First, the decade of the 1980s was one of external shocks (in the form of declines in oil prices, high interest rates and general economic decline in the world economy. For example, in 1981, Egypt’s weighted average export price for crude petroleum collapsed from $34 a barrel to $12 in May 1986. The Egyptian economy did not respond adequately to these shocks. The consequence was massive fiscal and current account deficits, which also paved the way for the accumulation of external debt. Between 1980/81 and 1990/91, the country’s external debt increased from $22.1 billion to $31.1 billion. At the same time, budget deficit averaged 18% of GDP annually. The rate of inflation had risen to more than 20% and open unemployment had risen to about 10% by 1990. in response to the decline in the Egyptian economy during 1986-90 period, coupled with massive fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation rates, negative interest rates, accumulated external debt and high open unemployment, the Government of Egypt (GOE) initiated the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Programme (ERSAP) for the period 1991/92 – 1992/93 with support of World Bank, IMF, ADB and other donors.


Second, - The assassination attempt of president Hosny Moubark 1995 in Ethiopia (ADDIS ABABA) so visit any Nile basin countries during the last fifteen year and attending any African summit stopped.


Third, the severe decline in the Egyptian economic and political capacity, as well as the injury of the political system in Egypt with a several disabled because of the absence of democracy and human rights violations and widespread corruption, and the combination of wealth and power and the spread of poverty, increased unemployment, low wages, high prices and the spread of the protest movements of groups of socially marginalized to claim their rights and the absence of institutions playing the real role (the legislative institution - Persecution of power advocated the independence of the judiciary , with the absence of a real role organizations of civil society and political parties led by poor and closed on itself by the actor is a tool for the police system. All these problems that afflicted the Egyptian people discovered their dissatisfaction with the existing regime and its policies and its lack of legitimacy because of rigging the election that led to losing the strong role externally, there is no doubt that there is a close relationship between the strength inside and outside force, and vice versa.






-Then there was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disintegration in the early nineties and United States-led new world order and the rearrangement of regional systems for the benefit of the United States, so the United States worked to ensure the superiority of Israel over Arab countries, also worked to eliminate any attempt to possess the power in the region ,With the decline of the Egyptian role in the region other countries have activated their roles like Israel that has an interest in making a conflict between Egypt and the Nile basin countries to attract the Egyptian attention from the middle east issues by play a vital role in the faces of support by provide economic and political ,technical support that Egypt failed to provide effectively, this policy of Israel helped in the change of the Nile basin countries attitude toward Egypt that allowed to Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda ,Burundi to sign the new CFA that want to redistribute the Nile water , especially Egypt that rely on the water of the Nile more than any other Nile basin state .


I argue that those countries can’t be neglected by Egypt because it will be a threat to the Egyptian national security, Egypt has to move faster and improve its appearance in the region by improve its strategy and also the foreign policy toward these countries, by intensification its role in the African organizations and in the Nile basin initiative, try to satisfy their economic, technical needs and benefit from them at the same time.





Appendix: - (sample questions asked during the interviews)


What is the history of the Egyptian role in the Nile basin?


What is the change that happened in the world order before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union?


What is the importance of the Nile as a factor in the relationship between Egypt and the Nile basin countries?


What and when the turning point in the relation ship?


What is the change in the basin countries attitude and what are the purposes of that?


What are the features of the deterioration in the role?


What are the features of Israel in the region and what is its plan and interests in the region?


What is the different between the Israeli role and the Egyptian role in the region?


What are the recommendations to improve the Egyptian role in the region?















Bibliography :-
Books
1)    Barbour, K.M, 1957, ‘A new Approach to the Nile Waters Problem’, 33, (3), July: 319-330.
2)    Brunée, J. & Toope, S. J., 2002, ‘The Changing Nile Basin Regime: Does Law Matter?’, 43, (1),Winter: 105-159.
3)    Himdan, Jamal, 1987, ‘The Character of Egypt’, Cairo, AlamAl kotob, 2.
4)    Hefny, Abu-Zeid, M., 1992, ‘Water Resources Assessment and Management in Egypt during Conditions of Stress’, 41: 35-46.
5)    Metawie, Abdel Fatah, 2004, ‘History of Co-operation in the Nile Basin’, 20, (1), March: 47-63.
Electronic sources
Studies and reports

10)                    Sprout, H. and Sprout, M., 1965, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
10)Churchill, Winston, S., 2000, New York: Carroll Graf Publishers.
     11)Heikal, M. H., 1978, ‘Egyptian Foreign Policy’, 56, (4), July.
    12) Swain, Ashok, 1997, ‘Ethiopia, the Sudan and Egypt, the Nile River Dispute’, Journal of Modern African Studies, 35, (4): 676-677.
     13)Sprout, H. and Sprout, M., 1969, ‘Environmental Factors in the Study of International Politics’, in James N. Rosenau., International Politics and Foreign Policy 2nd ed., New York, Free Press: 41-56.

The Egyptian Foreign Policy Towards Nile Basin Countries. PART 3



Chapter three



-The Israeli and foreign intervention in the Nile basin countries affairs



The features and characteristic of the Israeli appearance in Nile basin countries


The gradual resumption of diplomatic relations between Israel and Africa during the 1980s was a function, primarily, of the growing African disappointment with the Arab world and deteriorating conditions on the continent. Two carefully prepared meetings in the mid- 1970s between then Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and Leopold Sedar Senghor of Senegal and Felix Houphouet-Boigny of Cote d’Ivoire signaled some movement. The signing of the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty in 1979, which removed the ostensible reason for the rupture of relations in 1973, provided added impetus. But little progress was achieved until the early 1980s, when David Kimche was appointed director-general of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and, together with Avi Primor (then head of the Africa Desk), embarked on a campaign to achieve a diplomatic rapprochement.


A series of visits by Israeli leaders to various African states, notably by then Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir and Defense Minister Ariel Sharon, set the stage for the new Israeli effort. Private businessmen who had established themselves in various Nile basin capitals (Leon Tamman in Kinshasa, adis ababa ) were pressed into service. Military contacts were increased and contracts negotiated.


While economic and defense ties continued apace, movement on the diplomatic front, however, proved to be exceedingly slow. In May 1982, Mobutu Sese Seko of Zaire, anxious to capitalize on Israel’s relations with Washington, became the first African head of state to announce the restoration of relations with Israel. By the early 1990s only three Nile basin states, Guinea, Ethiopia, and Kenya—resumed relations.


During the course of the 1980s, as Israeli interests in the Far East expanded dramatically, relations with Nile basin countries continued to develop extremely slowly along these dualistic, and palpably utilitarian, lines. Israeli entrepreneurs were visible everywhere; some became informal advisers to heads of state in Nairobi, , Addis Ababa, and Kinshasa. Senior officers turned businessmen were involved in operations on different sides of conflicts in Rwanda and Zaire. Inevitably leading to immense confusion not easily dispelled by official protestations.


By the late 1980s, nevertheless, the Israeli presence on the continent had expanded once again, Trade relations, although still infinitesimal, grew; cultural contacts blossomed with the commencement of religious pilgrimages to Israel; academic exchanges increased; tourism flourished. A new equilibrium, admittedly devoid of the passion that had characterized the early years, was forged.


The last fifteen years have been marked by the complete diplomatic return of Israel to Africa. It has also been characterized by growing official Israeli indifference to the deteriorating situation on the continent, only somewhat mitigated by the emergence of Israeli and Jewish NGOs concerned with the ongoing African predicament. Despite massive changes in Israeli priorities and African circumstances, no comprehensive strategic review has been carried out, rendering the Israeli-African relationship as privatized and haphazard today as in recent decades.


The diplomatic turnabout of recent years was facilitated by two main factors. First and foremost, the Oslo Accords and the peace treaty with Jordan removed the last political barriers that had prevented a diplomatic rapprochement in the past. Second, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the emergence of the United States as the sole superpower magnified the potential significance of the normalization of links with Israel in African and Nile basin countries eyes. Israel established embassies in some of the Nile basin states (Ethiopia, Kenya, and the Democratic Republic of Congo)


Indeed, the selective character of Israel’s diplomatic ties in Africa mirrors shifting interests in recent years, rather than any conscious policy reassessment. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has refrained from taking the lead in shaping the new era in Israeli-African relations. Most professional diplomats do not see their future in the African arena. The turnover of personnel, with several notable exceptions, has been rapid. The quality of those charged with managing African affairs has, sadly, deteriorated, while even the best-intentioned have found that their bargaining power within the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as their access to resources has been severely constricted.


While the technical cooperation program of MASHAV[1] is still hailed as a key instrument of Israel’s Africa outreach, dwindling portions of its already minute budget are allocated to the continent. The Israeli aid program has become dependent on foreign financing and, at least to some extent, on private business interests. Stopgap measures have too often replaced ongoing programs. In the course of the past decade, numerous delegations of parliamentarians and academics have been dispatched to a variety of African states to compensate for the absence of a continuous presence on the ground. Diplomats in Washington and at the UN have become surrogates for permanent representatives in African capitals. Nongovernmental organizations and individuals ranging from Magen David Adom and La’tet to the American Jewish Committee, American Jewish World Service, and spontaneous groups formed to deal with various calamities, such as the floods and the drought in the Nile basin region.




The Israeli role in the conflict between Egypt and the Nile basin countries


With the outbreak of the crisis between Egypt and the Nile Basin countries, and the outbreak of the differences on the allocation of Nile water to Egypt and Sudan, and the emergence of the hidden role of Israel behind incite the Nile Basin countries of Africa "Ethiopia - Kenya - Uganda Rwanda" to violate the International Convention on the Nile Basin countries. The Nile basin crisis exposed the Zionist ambitions of expansion within the African continent, especially in the countries of the Horn of Africa and Nile Basin countries, which are considered strategic for the Zionist expansion in the continent.


Israel's interest that the Nile River, which represents the lifeblood of Egypt, gave the Jewish state's tactical and strategic advantage during the previous wars with Egypt. In the war of attrition, for example, Israel has hit the dams of Nag Hammadi and Esna, power lines, the link between Aswan and Cairo, which prompted Egypt to change its plans and forcing it to send troops to protect the higher dam against any Israeli attack, which led to reduce the pressure and attacks of the Egyptian in the cannel line. Zionist plan on Egypt, which comes within the scheme and the broader strategy, includes all Nile Basin countries, pointing out that the successive waves of drought suffered by the Nile Basin, in addition to high population growth in Egypt, led to the inability of Egypt to provide self-sufficiency of food. And therefore relied on other countries to provide food for its population. This made Egypt associated with foreign countries and especially the United States, which is the largest producer of food in the world.


The famous Israeli writer"Arnon Chauffeur" said that as a result of the Egyptians dependence on the United States, whenever it is in Israel's interests because U.S.A ensures the stability of the peace agreement signed between the Cairo and Tel Aviv.
According to the Decree of the real Zionist plan, the water crisis in Egypt will led to carry out economic reforms and to rationalize water consumption. That may become a reason for the great cooperation between Egypt and Israel, because Israel possesses extensive experience in both areas and Egypt can benefit from it in this matter.


Also Israel has an interest of a water crisis in Egypt, because that will push Egypt to engage in conflicts in this regard with its neighbors in the region of the Nile Basin, which will reduce its intervention in the affairs and issues of the Arab world. This is exactly what Israel wants. However, Israel does not hide its concern that any water crisis may be exposed to Egypt from the growing strength of extremist elements who oppose the peace agreement with Israel.


Israel has tried to use Ethiopia as a pressure on Egypt by Touch the Egyptian quota in the Nile waters and the threat of building dams in the hand of Ethiopian control the volume of water reaching to Egypt, especially that 80% of the water reaching to Egyptian territories have their origin in the Ethiopian highlands. Israel is also seeking to develop plans to draw water from the Nile to its territory from the nearest point in African countries that will threat irrigation and electricity, agriculture along the Nile Valley and Delta of Egypt.
from another side D.R Alia el Mahdy confirm that according to the Israel's interest, Israel want to stop control of Arab States on the Red Sea .. So Israel is trying to impose its control and its influence on the not Arab countries bordering on the Caspian Sea and offer all the help they need. Especially the states of Eritrea and Ethiopia. which at the same time advantage to Israel because they are also Nile Basin countries, so Israel is interested in increasing the share of Ethiopia in the Nile water, because it means from the Israeli point of view re-division of shares of the basin countries in the Nile water fairly.


Ethiopia that play a vital role in the rebellion revolution against Egypt figured from Israel with particular interest in Israel's strategic around the African continent because of the following reasons:


Zionist claims based on myths and claim that the relationship with Ethiopia due to the third century BC and claimed that the Son of Prophet Solomon (Menelik) of his wife, Queen of Sheba is the founder of Abyssinia which was called (Mcda) and national Amhara, which belonged to emperors Ahbash and most recently (Haile Selassie) is a descendant of Prophet Solomon.
Richness of Ethiopia's natural resources where they are in their territory many of the rivers (such as Abay, Tkaza, Parad, Amodu, Aoacho, Oceli) in addition to the lake (Tana) Great pose an enormous financial reserves of the Nile River , Ethiopia’s richest mineral resources industries that serve the Israeli military, including special, in addition to metals, diamonds, gold and silver.
The advantage of Ethiopia is strategically located geographic and demographic and political, they are having an impact on neighboring countries, especially Eritrea and the rest of the basin, in the case of Israeli control of influence in Ethiopia, the Egyptian national security is at a constant threat.


Israeli imports doubled from Ethiopia more than thirty times during the nineties, from 0.4 to 13.9 million dollars annually, while Israeli exports have doubled in only three times from 1.9 to 5.8 million dollars annually. In the same context, according to media sources, the Zionist Israeli companies specializing in the field of engineering consultancy and construction recently submitted bids for the Ethiopian Government with proposals to contribute to housing investment projects on the Nile, and the encouragement of the Israeli Foreign Ministry[2]. The volume of economic cooperation Israeli with Ethiopia, a remarkable development, with an export value of Ethiopian to Israel for the years 1993 - 1998 rate increase and reached 230% and that exports coffee, leather, school bags, shoes, vegetables, fruits, meat, live animals, cotton, timber, gold, cobalt, black oil, sugar, cereals, and also the Ethiopian Society of Commerce and the Ethiopian Export Agency and the Ethiopian embassy in Israel play a vital roles in facilitating economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. Israeli exports to Ethiopia have increased during 2003 to reach the rate of 500% in addition to increased military cooperation, which revealed the Information Bulletin of the British military in June 1998 that Israel maintains intelligence links closely with Ethiopia, and the Israeli Mossad runs a large cadre of collecting information and intelligence in the capital Addis Ababa, in addition to his activities in the Island (Dahlak) Eritrea and southern Sudan and the rest of the basin.


On the other hand relations between Nairobi and Tel Aviv's rapid development in all fields of economic, agricultural, security .according to the data of Israeli Foreign Ministry the Israeli imports from Kenya have doubled twice and a half times in the last three years from 8.6 to 20.9 million dollars annually, while exports have increased Israeli Almost twice the $ 14 million to $ 29.3 million. Israel has established strong ties with the State of Kenya, because of the headwaters of the Nile there, as well as with Uganda that located close to the Lake Victoria and Awan dam. DR.Emad Awad confirmed that during the sixties and seventies Egypt afraid of Israel that may close the dam (Awan) and therefore the flow of Nile water to Egypt will stop, so Cairo send a team of experts and Egyptian specialists to Uganda till now to ensure the flow of the White Nile on a regular basis.


Also Uganda and Israel signed an agreement in March 2000, during the visit of a delegation from the Israeli Ministry of Agriculture, headed by the Director of Irrigation in the Ministry, Moshe without Gulen, contain the implementation of irrigation projects in ten provinces affected by drought, and send Ugandan groups to Israel to complete the study of the projects, which is located mostly in the districts of northern Uganda, near the Ugandan border with Sudan, Kenya, and use of water flowing from Lake Victoria to the establishment of these projects, which leads to lack of water received by the White Nile, as well as Israel announced it was interested in the establishment of irrigation projects in the province of Karamoja in Uganda , near the Sudan, where they can irrigate more than 247 thousand hectares of land of Uganda through the use of two and a half billion cubic meters annually, while water that currently used does not exceed 207 million cubic meters only to irrigate 32 thousand hectares of land, not only the seriousness of existence Israel in the countries of the Nile to the use of experts and technical cooperation in the projects, but it extend to the economic and agricultural cooperation by Israeli capital , aims to own land in the region by the pretext of establishing projects, or improve its territory, or the establishment of dams.





Overall, the goal of Israel's presence in Africa is the desire to get on the Nile water, and pressure on the Egyptian decision-maker, because of the sensitivity and gravity of the sheet of water in the Egyptian strategy, through the adoption of Tel Aviv to play no direct role in water conflict between the Nile Basin countries, take advantage of its considerable influence in countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, taking advantage of U.S. support clear to her for joint control over the African continent, which affects the basis for the national security of Egypt , which makes it important to take swift action to curb this Israeli intervention , before it becomes a real threat, threatening of all, and may index the recent crisis with the Nile Basin countries for the good proof of that.



[1] MASHAV - Israel's Agency for International Development Cooperation is responsible for Israel's international cooperation and assistance around the world, through the provision of guidance and training in Israel and abroad. The assistance is provided in a wide variety of areas, including agriculture, medicine, education, the advancement of the status of women, community and family.
[2]Patric, terry, Israel and Africa Washington post ,USA ,2007

The Egyptian Foreign Policy Towards Nile Basin Countries. PART 2


Chapter 2

Egypt’s strategic role in Africa and the challenges

To measure a country’s role in another country or a set of countries, one needs to take
Into account the contribution that the acting country makes to what the partner country or Countries consider as important issues to them. And here one can identify a number of Issues of particular importance to Nile basin countries and analyze the role played by Egypt on these Issues.
The international relations passed with different stages during different times with different attitude and different political conditions, Egypt was during fifties and sixties Led by revolutionary government, this government policy based on the Liberation from colonialism so this policy faced welcome from the rest of the region’s countries that were under the domination of the colonization so during that time Egypt was a vital resource for these countries by provide   All forms of possible support to these liberation movements in Africa and the Nile basin region ,whether political and financial support or the Logistic by provide weapons and Munitions or technical support to provide military training to the components of resistance movements or media support by Broadcasting router from Cairo to the different African countries with their local languages that left for Egypt a high balance among the people of these countries , corroborating reflected till now in the different African capitals till today in the streets called ABDEL-NASSER or cities like SUEZ or CAIRO, but after this countries gained its independence their orientations became different from looking for independence to looking for development so the Egyptian role in the fifties and sixties became no longer improbable , so here was the turning point in the features of the Egyptian role in the Nile basin region and Africa as whole and the transition to the new stage with different tools. Ambassador Mona Omar , Emad Awad mentioned that the new role focus on provide technical and scientific support to serve  the Process of human development in the different activities by send doctors and university professors, Technicians and Azhar, church missions also from another side to improve the process of human development, Egypt also in 1980 has established the Egyptian Fund for Technical Cooperation with Africa To be entrusted with the coordination of the various forms of technical support and humanitarian and logistical support to African countries , Includes organizing training courses for African trainees in various fields such as medicine, nursing, police and the press and media, agriculture, irrigation , and provision of humanitarian relief , medical assistance in the cases of catastrophes, the fund signed more than 61 Bilateral cooperation agreements and 31 Trilateral Cooperation agreement, but this countries want to achieve development so beside the technical cooperation they need a high level of financial and industrial supports that we could not provide during the last thirty years as well because of There are a lot of issues attracted the Egyptian attention away from its regional role toward the Nile basin countries.
During this phase, the beginning of decline in the Egyptian role at Arab, African have been associated with the beginning of the new stage with the most important variable has had a profound impact on the decline this role, the peace initiative between Egypt and Israel, the Sadat's visit to Jerusalem in 1977 and the subsequent signing of the peace agreement between Egypt and Israel in 1979 has resulted in this agreement that most Arab countries severed relations with Egypt, which led to great confusion in the region and then stopped the Arab-African Conference was attended by 65 countries, Arab, African that Egypt was the first supporter of it.
-Then there was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disintegration in the early nineties and private United States-led new world order and the rearrangement of regional systems for the benefit of the United States.
- The assassination attempt of president Hosny Moubark 1995 in Ethiopia (ADIS ABABA) led to the president prevent to visit any Nile basin countries  during the last fifteen year and also led him to stop attend any African summit
-In Africa, the United States worked to ensure the superiority of Israel over Arab countries , also worked to eliminate any attempt to possess the power either to Iran or Iraq or Syria and then the first and second Gulf War were the process translation of this trend and this policy led to decline and weaknesses in the Egyptian regional role, especially after Egypt suffered from an economic crisis in the eighties and early nineties because of the deteriorating of the economic performance and the collapse of oil prices and a fall in revenues from the Suez Canal and remittances from Egyptians abroad, as a result of this challenges the Egyptian attention attracted away from its regional rule toward the Nile basin countries.
-The absence of the Egyptian appearance in the Nile basin region is a result of the weakness of the Egyptian capacity at the economic and the political, military culture there. This weakness resulted from the absence of strategic vision resulting from the lack of awareness of the importance of the African cycle at Egypt's national security and in particular the Department of the Nile Basin, Weak manifestation of the universal force (economic - military - political - cultural - information) is a tool which depends upon any country to play a role on the regional and international level. The decade of the 1980s was one of external shocks (in the form of declines in oil prices, high interest rates and general economic decline), in the world economy. For example, in 1981, Egypt’s weighted average export price for crude petroleum collapsed from $34 a barrel to $12 in May 1986. The Egyptian economy did not respond adequately to these shocks. The consequence was massive fiscal and current account deficits, which also paved the way for the accumulation of external debt. Between 1980/81 and 1990/91, the country’s external debt increased from $22.1 billion to $31.1 billion. At the same time, budget deficit averaged 18% of GDP annually. The rate of inflation had risen to more than 20% and open unemployment had risen to about 10% by 1990
As a result DR.MAHMOUD ABO EL ENIN AND DR.HWAIDA ABDEL- AZIM confirmed that in response to the decline in the Egyptian economy during 1986-90 period, coupled with massive fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation rates, negative interest rates, accumulated external debt and high open unemployment, the Government of Egypt (GOE) initiated the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Programme (ERSAP) for the period 1991/92 – 1992/93 with support of World Bank, IMF, ADB and other donors. The goals of ERSAP were: stabilization of the economy in order to restore macroeconomic balance and reduce inflation; structural adjustment to stimulate medium and long term growth; and modification of social policies to minimize the adverse effects of economic reform on the poor and vulnerable groups. The structural adjustment policies were aimed at reforming public enterprises and liberalizing all prices, including interest rates. The underlying assumption was that the introduction of market prices as a basis of resource allocation would gradually pave the way for the emergence of a virile private sector. So Egypt was preoccupied with the structural adjustment programme to survive and it was no place in the Egyptian chest to contain the Nile basin region demands and needs.
This weakness is not attributed to the absence of devices operating in Africa, there are a numerous of counterparts working and operating in Africa , but lack of strategy and ability to take political decisions in a timely manner, it is necessary to recognize that the multiplicity of the Egyptian counterparts working in the field of African without coordination between them in the framework of a clear strategy constitutes one of the factors important to block any efforts to report the Egyptian interests in Africa ,by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the ministries of foreign trade and higher education, culture, media, economy, defense and interior, Al-Azhar and the Church , the associations of businessmen, it is clear that each device operates according to perceptions, and this would conflict perceptions and dispersal of resources and go all these efforts.

Also the internal factors play a major rule look like the external factors , DR.SOAD MOHAMED confirmed that During the last ten years Egypt has tried to improve its role in Africa and specially in the Nile basin region as an important part in the continent that Egypt belong to, but this attempts were weak because of the severe decline in the Egyptian economic and political capacity as noted above, as well as the injury of the political system in Egypt with a several disabled because of the absence of democracy and human rights violations and widespread corruption, and the combination of wealth and power and the spread of poverty, increased unemployment, low wages, high prices and the spread of the protest movements of groups of socially marginalized to claim their rights and the absence of institutions playing the real role (the legislative institution - Persecution of power advocated the independence of the judiciary , with the absence of a real role of organizations of civil society and political parties led by poor and closed on itself by the actor is a tool for the police system .All these problems that afflicted  the Egyptian people discovered their dissatisfaction with the existing regime and its policies and its lack of legitimacy because of rigging the election that led to losing the strong role externally, there is no doubt that there is a close relationship between the strength inside and outside force, and vice versa.

The Egyptian Foreign Policy Towards Nile Basin Countries. PART 1


Chapter one
The features of the relationship between Egypt and Nile basin countries
1.     Historical background:-

-Historically, Egypt was considered an African rather than an Arab state. And its relations with south of the Nile valley and Central Africa have continued ever since. It is possible to view the geopolitical regional relations between Egypt and the states of the African Horn and the Nile basin in such a way that they could be considered conducive to cooperation in peacetime, but a point of pressure that might threaten the Egyptian entity in case of war or the threat of it.
The first aspect of this relationship resulted when the Red Sea became an important international waterway and centers of interest of the international powers, hence the necessity for Egyptian, Arab and African cooperation by virtue of the long African and Western shorelines on this very Sea, The second aspect was imposed by the water sources of the Nile, as Egypt relies entirely on the Nile River to supply her need for fresh waters. Ethiopia claims a monopoly of supply by consuming more than 80 percent of these sources. This is a fact that has set a permanent goal for the Egyptian leadership to ensure the present flow of waters of the Nile, The third aspect relates to the Nile River as an international river crossing the borders of ten states of the Nile basin. Such international nature of the river presents a grave challenge necessitating cooperation between all riparian states for the management of sources of the river to achieve the best utilization; the fourth aspect is reflected in the nature of protracted conflicts in the African Horn of Africa, and East Africa, particularly in Sudan, Somalia, northern Uganda, and the Great Lakes region.
The Nile water for Egypt, a matter of life and death Unlike other basin States and the objective of securing the top of the Nile water has always been its foreign policy but reached to the extent that some people make him a god to worship, also the Nile valley plays an important role in Egyptian-Nile basin countries relations and the achievement of integration because it is the primary resource of water and Came to be regarded as a water variable because the nile river is one of the main factors that threaten the good-neighborly relations and regional cooperation among the riparian States of international river basins and in the light of the increasing role of water variable  in contemporary international politics.
The Nile river respect in terms of topographic[1] with two properties: -
First: - River Nile took complete control over the economy and the lives of the Egyptian state, so Egypt's political strength is directly proportional to the amount of water available to them, and the national income equals the income of the water almost.
Second: - Egypt is the biggest beneficiary of the Nile is not having any of the follow-up to make it always keen in its relations with the rest of the other States where there are follow up and pursue a policy of flexible and a bit about the internal conflicts and regional and international levels. The Nile Basin countries, nine have only The interests of limited or marginal with the exception of Sudan and the principle of ensuring that the form of Nile water a fundamental principle of the Group of Eight principles on which the Egyptian national security through successive historical eras.

1.     The Egyptian role factors:-

-The Egyptian role in Nile basin region as a part of Africa relies on different factors that establish the importance of the Egyptian presence in Africa. Prominent among those are a) its geographic location; b) its historical and socio-cultural heritage and links; c) its national interests; and d) its financial and political clout.
Geographical, Egypt lies at the downstream end of the basin. The country receives hardly any rainfall, and depends on the Nile for almost all its direct water requirements, including agriculture, domestic and industrial supplies, navigation, and tourism. This description implies that Egypt is located in Africa, and it is therefore a country of Nile basin countries (Sudan-Burundi-Ethiopia-Kenya-Rwanda-Tanzania-Uganda-Eretria-D.R Congo).
With regard to its historical and socio-cultural heritage and links, Egypt is largely an Arab-Islamic state. Although Egypt, as the rest of Africa, was only arabised and/or islamicised, both Arabism and Islam have come to be rooted in Egyptian history and social-cultural fabric and imaginary. So much so that taking Egypt from any of these two entities today will mean an amputated Islamic or Arab world. The Cairo-based AL-AZHAR UNIVERSITY is arguably the oldest (more than a thousand years) and the most prestigious centre of Islamic scholarship in the world. And if one were to take away the Egyptian contribution to contemporary Arabic language and literature you would surely leave that language a lame man.

It is these two factors that largely inform Egypt’s national interest, which is the third factor that defines a country’s foreign policy. From its geographical location bordering the NILE BASIN countries, and its social-historical (Arab-Islamic) links to the countries of this region, events that happen in this part of the world are susceptible to impact either positively or negatively on Egypt’s national security and economic, Political stability in this region is therefore of great concern for Egyptian national security and thus national interest. Also, given its limited natural resources and the abundance of these resources in a number of countries of this region.
From its location north of the Nile Basin and its dependence on the Nile River for its very existence, ensuring the continuous flow of the Nile waters from countries of its origin, namely Uganda, Sudan and Ethiopia, is one of key national interest concerns for Egypt. And of course, maintaining its friendly relationship with the United Sates, the world’s only superpower, and the generous financial assistance that has estimated at more than $50 bn since 1978) is another key of foreign policy objective that Egypt considers part of its national interest.
Finally, the fourth factor that defines a country’s foreign policy, one must not forget that Egypt is a Third World African state with limited economic resources at its disposal (but relatively prosperous within Africa), and that is politically rivaled by other actors on all of its geographical borders. The financial and political weight that a country carries may constitute an advantage or a constraint on that country’s foreign policy choices and actions. Egypt’s financial and political status constitutes both.
With regard to this status constituting a constraint on Egypt’s foreign policy actions in Africa, it is worth noting that countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya rival Egypt and spearhead initiatives that Egypt could do in order to have a more noticeable Africa-focused foreign policy and also tend to exclude Egypt from the club of Nile basin countries. This is largely informed by the fear of these countries of Egyptian domination. Another reason of this situation may also be the fact that they were all under domination and still maintain close ties with London and Paris, which is not the case for Egypt. Egypt is considered as African and country would want to preserve the leadership role in that region.

1.     The issue of Nile water

-In addition, the issue of Nile water grows in gravity in regional relations for the states of the basin for a number of reasons. First, no real organization exists among the states of the basin to allow for a dialogue to determine the distribution and exploitation of the Nile water. Second, there exists real competition among states of the Nile basin over the production of specific crops for export; especially cotton which needs enormous amounts of water. Third, the ongoing enmities and conflicts between states of the basin, and the intra-state civil wars, which have created opportunities for instability and frequent manipulation by external powers, continue to undermine their own interests and the interests of the area Bearing all this in mind, the importance of the Nile water to Egypt – particularly if a number of interrelated issues are addressed – cannot be underestimated. First, according to the statistics of the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, the Nile alone supplies 94 percent of total water resources of the country. As (graph 1)[1] shows, of Egypt’s total area of 1,001,450 sq. km, more than 326,000 sq. km. or 33 percent of the territory fall within the Nile River basin[2]. The percentage of Egypt’s population in the Nile River basin accounts for more than 85 percent compared to the other basin states’ population percentages such as Uganda (75 percent), Sudan (74 percent), and Rwanda (72 percent).
Second, Egypt is preoccupied with a shortage of water resources in addition to the increase in population and the adoption of economic development projects. The Nile waters can be considered the main resource for irrigation. It is also used for other purposes such as transportation, industry and tourism. It is estimated that an increase in population in three Nile River states namely, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, will reach more than 200 million in the year 2015, which means an increase in the demand for Nile water[1] .If the current water policies persist, each of these three states would seek to increase its share at the expense of the other states Third, the international dimension appears crucial in designing Egyptian water policies. Considering that Egypt’s water resources mainly come from beyond its borders, the increase in these sources should be achieved within the framework of coordination with the other governments of the River states. There is no doubt that this places Egypt in a serious and vulnerable situation while designing her water policies, with respect to her inability to control the projects designed to preserve water along the banks of the White Nile. It is essential for Egypt’s survival that there is an uninterrupted flow of the Nile water into Lake Nasser amounting to 18 milliard cubic meters annually. The flow of the Nile River waters can be utilized jointly with Sudan, after the application of four phases in Upper Nile, particularly in Jongli I, Jongli II, Machar Marches swamps, and Gazelle Nile. Egypt depends largely on the implementation of these projects in order to face the increasing demand on the water. Egypt’s vulnerability is also explained by the amount of rainfall the country receives in the Nile River basin, the main basket area for the country’s agriculture since Pharaoh’s time.
The maximum average rainfall of only 120mm per year is the least in the region, a situation, which over the centuries has forced Egypt to irrigate more land for its agricultural production. Table 3 shows that land irrigated by Egypt in the Nile River basin is almost twice the land irrigated by the other riparian states combined. Table 2 also shows that most of the Nile River basin countries namely, Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, have so far not adequately utilized the river for irrigation. However, these countries receive more rain as compared to Egypt.
-But it is clear nowadays the change in the hydro politics[1] and the challenges that will face Egypt as a result of this change, since 1999 comprehensive efforts have been made toward the development of a new Nile Basin regime called the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The NBI is a partnership initiated and run by the riparian states of the Nile River through the Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin states (NBI 2010). All riparian states of the Nile Basin are included in the NBI, except for Eritrea, which has observer status.
The objectives of the NBI are to:-
• develop the Nile Basin water resources in a sustainable and equitable way to ensure prosperity, security, and peace for all its peoples;
• ensure efficient water management and the optimal use of the resources;
• ensure cooperation and joint action between the riparian countries, seeking win-win gains;
• target poverty eradication and promote economic integration; and
• ensure that the program results in a move from planning to action. (NBI 2010)

The NBI tries to develop the river basin by implementing a broad approach, using different tools at different levels. At the international level, the NBI intends to promote a shared vision among all riparians. This Shared Vision Project (SVP) includes “grants-based activities to foster trust and in promoting cooperative and integrated water resource management among the Nile Basin riparians. The ratification of a legal agreement is the first step in this direction. The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) is the key element for the formation of the new regime and the most contentious part of the regime negotiations. Once ratified, the CFA is expected to replace the 1929 and 1959 agreements and therefore implement a new legal entity for allocating the Nile’s waters. The dispute over the CFA originates from the question of maintaining the legal–political status quo of existing water allocation. Egypt, as it can be imagined, would not light-mindedly hand in the agreements that are beneficiary for its own status quo. Clearly, the preexisting regimes present huge obstacles to formation of a new regime in the Nile Basin.
The World Bank and the Canadian International Development Agency are the donors most involved in the NBI process. The Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), established in 2003, is managed by the World Bank and encompasses most of the international donor support. It is unlikely that the NBI would have come to life without the strong international (donor) support. “As such, donor support in the establishment and evolution of the NBI is considered to have been crucial and indispensable. But because of its over-reliance on multilateral donors, the NBI has also been frequently portrayed by several critical voices as excessively donor-driven” Yet, without international technical, financial, and political support, it is unlikely that the NBI would have come this far. This clearly demonstrates the importance of international actors in the formation of a new water regime.





[1] Hydro politics: the politics of water.




[1] World Bank 2011: 48-50
[2]Karyabwite, Diana RizzolioWater Sharing in the Nile River Valley, (Geneva: UNEP/DEWA/GRID, January-June 2000), p. 25.



[1] Source: Karyabwite, Diana Rizzolio, Water Sharing in the Nile River Valley (Geneva: UNEP/DEWA/GRID, January-June 2010), p. 33.
[2] (FAO 2010)


[1] Topography is the shape or configuration of the land, represented on a map by contour lines, hypsometric tints, and relief shading.