· Conclusion:-
The Nile River is the only major source of water for the country, plays a crucial role in the life of Egypt. As compared to the other riparian states, Egypt is the only country that is heavily dependent on the Nile River waters, making Cairo vulnerable to any actions that would jeopardize the flow of the Nile. The Nile River will always be the parameter that influences Egyptian role and foreign policy vis-à-vis the states in the basin region.
As a result of many internal and external factors, the Egyptian role in the Nile basin region deteriorate, after those countries gained their independence; they started development so those countries needs from Egypt changed, from military support and assistance in achieve independence to scientific and technical, economic support to achieve the comprehensive development but there are a lot of issues attract the Egyptian attention from the appearance in the Nile basin region effectively. First, the decade of the 1980s was one of external shocks (in the form of declines in oil prices, high interest rates and general economic decline in the world economy. For example, in 1981, Egypt’s weighted average export price for crude petroleum collapsed from $34 a barrel to $12 in May 1986. The Egyptian economy did not respond adequately to these shocks. The consequence was massive fiscal and current account deficits, which also paved the way for the accumulation of external debt. Between 1980/81 and 1990/91, the country’s external debt increased from $22.1 billion to $31.1 billion. At the same time, budget deficit averaged 18% of GDP annually. The rate of inflation had risen to more than 20% and open unemployment had risen to about 10% by 1990. in response to the decline in the Egyptian economy during 1986-90 period, coupled with massive fiscal and current account deficits, high inflation rates, negative interest rates, accumulated external debt and high open unemployment, the Government of Egypt (GOE) initiated the Economic Reform and Structural Adjustment Programme (ERSAP) for the period 1991/92 – 1992/93 with support of World Bank, IMF, ADB and other donors.
Second, - The assassination attempt of president Hosny Moubark 1995 in Ethiopia (ADDIS ABABA) so visit any Nile basin countries during the last fifteen year and attending any African summit stopped.
Third, the severe decline in the Egyptian economic and political capacity, as well as the injury of the political system in Egypt with a several disabled because of the absence of democracy and human rights violations and widespread corruption, and the combination of wealth and power and the spread of poverty, increased unemployment, low wages, high prices and the spread of the protest movements of groups of socially marginalized to claim their rights and the absence of institutions playing the real role (the legislative institution - Persecution of power advocated the independence of the judiciary , with the absence of a real role organizations of civil society and political parties led by poor and closed on itself by the actor is a tool for the police system. All these problems that afflicted the Egyptian people discovered their dissatisfaction with the existing regime and its policies and its lack of legitimacy because of rigging the election that led to losing the strong role externally, there is no doubt that there is a close relationship between the strength inside and outside force, and vice versa.
-Then there was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the disintegration in the early nineties and United States-led new world order and the rearrangement of regional systems for the benefit of the United States, so the United States worked to ensure the superiority of Israel over Arab countries, also worked to eliminate any attempt to possess the power in the region ,With the decline of the Egyptian role in the region other countries have activated their roles like Israel that has an interest in making a conflict between Egypt and the Nile basin countries to attract the Egyptian attention from the middle east issues by play a vital role in the faces of support by provide economic and political ,technical support that Egypt failed to provide effectively, this policy of Israel helped in the change of the Nile basin countries attitude toward Egypt that allowed to Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda ,Burundi to sign the new CFA that want to redistribute the Nile water , especially Egypt that rely on the water of the Nile more than any other Nile basin state .
I argue that those countries can’t be neglected by Egypt because it will be a threat to the Egyptian national security, Egypt has to move faster and improve its appearance in the region by improve its strategy and also the foreign policy toward these countries, by intensification its role in the African organizations and in the Nile basin initiative, try to satisfy their economic, technical needs and benefit from them at the same time.
Appendix: - (sample questions asked during the interviews)
What is the history of the Egyptian role in the Nile basin?
What is the change that happened in the world order before and after the collapse of the Soviet Union?
What is the importance of the Nile as a factor in the relationship between Egypt and the Nile basin countries?
What and when the turning point in the relation ship?
What is the change in the basin countries attitude and what are the purposes of that?
What are the features of the deterioration in the role?
What are the features of Israel in the region and what is its plan and interests in the region?
What is the different between the Israeli role and the Egyptian role in the region?
What are the recommendations to improve the Egyptian role in the region?
Bibliography :-
Books
1) Barbour, K.M, 1957, ‘A new Approach to the Nile Waters Problem’,
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Himdan,
Jamal, 1987, ‘The Character of Egypt’, Cairo, AlamAl kotob, 2.
4) Hefny, Abu-Zeid, M., 1992, ‘Water Resources Assessment and
Management in Egypt during Conditions of Stress’, 41: 35-46.
5) Metawie, Abdel Fatah, 2004, ‘History of Co-operation in the Nile
Basin’, 20, (1), March: 47-63.
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Sprout, H. and
Sprout, M., 1965, Princeton: Princeton University Press.
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Sprout, M., 1969, ‘Environmental Factors in the Study of International
Politics’, in James N. Rosenau., International Politics and Foreign Policy
2nd ed., New York, Free Press: 41-56.
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