السبت، 11 مايو 2013

The Egyptian Foreign Policy Towards Nile Basin Countries. PART 1


Chapter one
The features of the relationship between Egypt and Nile basin countries
1.     Historical background:-

-Historically, Egypt was considered an African rather than an Arab state. And its relations with south of the Nile valley and Central Africa have continued ever since. It is possible to view the geopolitical regional relations between Egypt and the states of the African Horn and the Nile basin in such a way that they could be considered conducive to cooperation in peacetime, but a point of pressure that might threaten the Egyptian entity in case of war or the threat of it.
The first aspect of this relationship resulted when the Red Sea became an important international waterway and centers of interest of the international powers, hence the necessity for Egyptian, Arab and African cooperation by virtue of the long African and Western shorelines on this very Sea, The second aspect was imposed by the water sources of the Nile, as Egypt relies entirely on the Nile River to supply her need for fresh waters. Ethiopia claims a monopoly of supply by consuming more than 80 percent of these sources. This is a fact that has set a permanent goal for the Egyptian leadership to ensure the present flow of waters of the Nile, The third aspect relates to the Nile River as an international river crossing the borders of ten states of the Nile basin. Such international nature of the river presents a grave challenge necessitating cooperation between all riparian states for the management of sources of the river to achieve the best utilization; the fourth aspect is reflected in the nature of protracted conflicts in the African Horn of Africa, and East Africa, particularly in Sudan, Somalia, northern Uganda, and the Great Lakes region.
The Nile water for Egypt, a matter of life and death Unlike other basin States and the objective of securing the top of the Nile water has always been its foreign policy but reached to the extent that some people make him a god to worship, also the Nile valley plays an important role in Egyptian-Nile basin countries relations and the achievement of integration because it is the primary resource of water and Came to be regarded as a water variable because the nile river is one of the main factors that threaten the good-neighborly relations and regional cooperation among the riparian States of international river basins and in the light of the increasing role of water variable  in contemporary international politics.
The Nile river respect in terms of topographic[1] with two properties: -
First: - River Nile took complete control over the economy and the lives of the Egyptian state, so Egypt's political strength is directly proportional to the amount of water available to them, and the national income equals the income of the water almost.
Second: - Egypt is the biggest beneficiary of the Nile is not having any of the follow-up to make it always keen in its relations with the rest of the other States where there are follow up and pursue a policy of flexible and a bit about the internal conflicts and regional and international levels. The Nile Basin countries, nine have only The interests of limited or marginal with the exception of Sudan and the principle of ensuring that the form of Nile water a fundamental principle of the Group of Eight principles on which the Egyptian national security through successive historical eras.

1.     The Egyptian role factors:-

-The Egyptian role in Nile basin region as a part of Africa relies on different factors that establish the importance of the Egyptian presence in Africa. Prominent among those are a) its geographic location; b) its historical and socio-cultural heritage and links; c) its national interests; and d) its financial and political clout.
Geographical, Egypt lies at the downstream end of the basin. The country receives hardly any rainfall, and depends on the Nile for almost all its direct water requirements, including agriculture, domestic and industrial supplies, navigation, and tourism. This description implies that Egypt is located in Africa, and it is therefore a country of Nile basin countries (Sudan-Burundi-Ethiopia-Kenya-Rwanda-Tanzania-Uganda-Eretria-D.R Congo).
With regard to its historical and socio-cultural heritage and links, Egypt is largely an Arab-Islamic state. Although Egypt, as the rest of Africa, was only arabised and/or islamicised, both Arabism and Islam have come to be rooted in Egyptian history and social-cultural fabric and imaginary. So much so that taking Egypt from any of these two entities today will mean an amputated Islamic or Arab world. The Cairo-based AL-AZHAR UNIVERSITY is arguably the oldest (more than a thousand years) and the most prestigious centre of Islamic scholarship in the world. And if one were to take away the Egyptian contribution to contemporary Arabic language and literature you would surely leave that language a lame man.

It is these two factors that largely inform Egypt’s national interest, which is the third factor that defines a country’s foreign policy. From its geographical location bordering the NILE BASIN countries, and its social-historical (Arab-Islamic) links to the countries of this region, events that happen in this part of the world are susceptible to impact either positively or negatively on Egypt’s national security and economic, Political stability in this region is therefore of great concern for Egyptian national security and thus national interest. Also, given its limited natural resources and the abundance of these resources in a number of countries of this region.
From its location north of the Nile Basin and its dependence on the Nile River for its very existence, ensuring the continuous flow of the Nile waters from countries of its origin, namely Uganda, Sudan and Ethiopia, is one of key national interest concerns for Egypt. And of course, maintaining its friendly relationship with the United Sates, the world’s only superpower, and the generous financial assistance that has estimated at more than $50 bn since 1978) is another key of foreign policy objective that Egypt considers part of its national interest.
Finally, the fourth factor that defines a country’s foreign policy, one must not forget that Egypt is a Third World African state with limited economic resources at its disposal (but relatively prosperous within Africa), and that is politically rivaled by other actors on all of its geographical borders. The financial and political weight that a country carries may constitute an advantage or a constraint on that country’s foreign policy choices and actions. Egypt’s financial and political status constitutes both.
With regard to this status constituting a constraint on Egypt’s foreign policy actions in Africa, it is worth noting that countries such as Ethiopia and Kenya rival Egypt and spearhead initiatives that Egypt could do in order to have a more noticeable Africa-focused foreign policy and also tend to exclude Egypt from the club of Nile basin countries. This is largely informed by the fear of these countries of Egyptian domination. Another reason of this situation may also be the fact that they were all under domination and still maintain close ties with London and Paris, which is not the case for Egypt. Egypt is considered as African and country would want to preserve the leadership role in that region.

1.     The issue of Nile water

-In addition, the issue of Nile water grows in gravity in regional relations for the states of the basin for a number of reasons. First, no real organization exists among the states of the basin to allow for a dialogue to determine the distribution and exploitation of the Nile water. Second, there exists real competition among states of the Nile basin over the production of specific crops for export; especially cotton which needs enormous amounts of water. Third, the ongoing enmities and conflicts between states of the basin, and the intra-state civil wars, which have created opportunities for instability and frequent manipulation by external powers, continue to undermine their own interests and the interests of the area Bearing all this in mind, the importance of the Nile water to Egypt – particularly if a number of interrelated issues are addressed – cannot be underestimated. First, according to the statistics of the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation and Water Resources, the Nile alone supplies 94 percent of total water resources of the country. As (graph 1)[1] shows, of Egypt’s total area of 1,001,450 sq. km, more than 326,000 sq. km. or 33 percent of the territory fall within the Nile River basin[2]. The percentage of Egypt’s population in the Nile River basin accounts for more than 85 percent compared to the other basin states’ population percentages such as Uganda (75 percent), Sudan (74 percent), and Rwanda (72 percent).
Second, Egypt is preoccupied with a shortage of water resources in addition to the increase in population and the adoption of economic development projects. The Nile waters can be considered the main resource for irrigation. It is also used for other purposes such as transportation, industry and tourism. It is estimated that an increase in population in three Nile River states namely, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia, will reach more than 200 million in the year 2015, which means an increase in the demand for Nile water[1] .If the current water policies persist, each of these three states would seek to increase its share at the expense of the other states Third, the international dimension appears crucial in designing Egyptian water policies. Considering that Egypt’s water resources mainly come from beyond its borders, the increase in these sources should be achieved within the framework of coordination with the other governments of the River states. There is no doubt that this places Egypt in a serious and vulnerable situation while designing her water policies, with respect to her inability to control the projects designed to preserve water along the banks of the White Nile. It is essential for Egypt’s survival that there is an uninterrupted flow of the Nile water into Lake Nasser amounting to 18 milliard cubic meters annually. The flow of the Nile River waters can be utilized jointly with Sudan, after the application of four phases in Upper Nile, particularly in Jongli I, Jongli II, Machar Marches swamps, and Gazelle Nile. Egypt depends largely on the implementation of these projects in order to face the increasing demand on the water. Egypt’s vulnerability is also explained by the amount of rainfall the country receives in the Nile River basin, the main basket area for the country’s agriculture since Pharaoh’s time.
The maximum average rainfall of only 120mm per year is the least in the region, a situation, which over the centuries has forced Egypt to irrigate more land for its agricultural production. Table 3 shows that land irrigated by Egypt in the Nile River basin is almost twice the land irrigated by the other riparian states combined. Table 2 also shows that most of the Nile River basin countries namely, Burundi, DRC, Rwanda, Kenya, Uganda, Eritrea, and Ethiopia, have so far not adequately utilized the river for irrigation. However, these countries receive more rain as compared to Egypt.
-But it is clear nowadays the change in the hydro politics[1] and the challenges that will face Egypt as a result of this change, since 1999 comprehensive efforts have been made toward the development of a new Nile Basin regime called the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI). The NBI is a partnership initiated and run by the riparian states of the Nile River through the Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin states (NBI 2010). All riparian states of the Nile Basin are included in the NBI, except for Eritrea, which has observer status.
The objectives of the NBI are to:-
• develop the Nile Basin water resources in a sustainable and equitable way to ensure prosperity, security, and peace for all its peoples;
• ensure efficient water management and the optimal use of the resources;
• ensure cooperation and joint action between the riparian countries, seeking win-win gains;
• target poverty eradication and promote economic integration; and
• ensure that the program results in a move from planning to action. (NBI 2010)

The NBI tries to develop the river basin by implementing a broad approach, using different tools at different levels. At the international level, the NBI intends to promote a shared vision among all riparians. This Shared Vision Project (SVP) includes “grants-based activities to foster trust and in promoting cooperative and integrated water resource management among the Nile Basin riparians. The ratification of a legal agreement is the first step in this direction. The Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) is the key element for the formation of the new regime and the most contentious part of the regime negotiations. Once ratified, the CFA is expected to replace the 1929 and 1959 agreements and therefore implement a new legal entity for allocating the Nile’s waters. The dispute over the CFA originates from the question of maintaining the legal–political status quo of existing water allocation. Egypt, as it can be imagined, would not light-mindedly hand in the agreements that are beneficiary for its own status quo. Clearly, the preexisting regimes present huge obstacles to formation of a new regime in the Nile Basin.
The World Bank and the Canadian International Development Agency are the donors most involved in the NBI process. The Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), established in 2003, is managed by the World Bank and encompasses most of the international donor support. It is unlikely that the NBI would have come to life without the strong international (donor) support. “As such, donor support in the establishment and evolution of the NBI is considered to have been crucial and indispensable. But because of its over-reliance on multilateral donors, the NBI has also been frequently portrayed by several critical voices as excessively donor-driven” Yet, without international technical, financial, and political support, it is unlikely that the NBI would have come this far. This clearly demonstrates the importance of international actors in the formation of a new water regime.





[1] Hydro politics: the politics of water.




[1] World Bank 2011: 48-50
[2]Karyabwite, Diana RizzolioWater Sharing in the Nile River Valley, (Geneva: UNEP/DEWA/GRID, January-June 2000), p. 25.



[1] Source: Karyabwite, Diana Rizzolio, Water Sharing in the Nile River Valley (Geneva: UNEP/DEWA/GRID, January-June 2010), p. 33.
[2] (FAO 2010)


[1] Topography is the shape or configuration of the land, represented on a map by contour lines, hypsometric tints, and relief shading.


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